At a time when people around the world were riding high on early signs of economic recovery, the World Bank (WB) brings them back to the ground reality. According to the WB, which has revised its forecasts on global economic growth to -2.9% in 2009, down from -1.7% projected in Mar’09, the recovery is expected to be very gradual. Have a look at the WB's revised GDP forecasts for 2009 and 2010.
One interesting thing you must have noticed about Indian and Chinese economies. Growth forecasts for both the nations have been revised upward. Now, does it say that the decoupling hypothesis was not a complete absurd and it’s just a beginning? May be a couple of decades later this blissful thought becomes a reality.
Well, for me it’s too early to comment on that. Personally, I don’t believe in ‘decoupling’. If you have views on that please share.
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Why do you not ask the question on how these numbers are collated? It will shed some significant light on whether to believe these numbers at all.
ReplyDeleteHi there! That's a billion dollar question. If you follow, so many times they (IMF, World Bank)have revised their forecasts in last 8 months.
ReplyDeleteBut we should never forget that the year of 2008 has been the most volatile year in at least last 10 years. So it's not that easy to make a prediction right in these times.