World Bank: India to grow faster than China in 2010

I was glad to see the World Bank’s latest revisions in its global GDP forecasts on June 22, 2009. Now you must be thinking that I have lost it completely because in that update the World Bank actually revised the global GDP forecasts downward for both 2009 & 10. So why would someone be happy about it? Well, I understand your point. But if you have read my older post on ‘Who will be the next global economic growth leader?’ posted on June 17, 2009, I had written that India will leave China behind in terms of economic growth to become the global growth leader.

Five days later the World Bank comes to support my statement by projecting India to grow faster than China in 2010. According to World Bank India would grow at 8% in 2010, making it the fastest-growing economy in the world. China is projected to grow at 7.7% in the same year. Have a look at the following table.

Let’s talk about the world economy now. Despite the recent signs of improvement in some parts of the world, the prospects for the global economy remain quite uncertain. According to the World Bank’s revised forecasts, the world GDP will contract by 2.9% in 2009 as compared to 1.7% it had forecast just two months and a half ago. To my mind, the global economy will take some time - say four more quarters - to come out of the trauma of recession.

The policy makers will have to be extra careful about all macro indicators and will have to respond to them accordingly. Structural imbalances which have been created over the period need to be tackled now. The US consumers need to learn how to save and the Chinese consumers should learn how to spend. Another major problem for many countries is the mounting fiscal deficit, which is going to take the centre stage once the recovery starts. Inflation, unemployment, protectionism… It will be quite a task for policymakers to tackle these-going-to-be-serious issues. Well, I am also bracing myself for bringing all the actions on the economy front to your notice.